To be fair, prediction markets have long occupied an awkward place in the crypto world.
They are popular in niche communities, but not quite mainstream. They can compress complex events into real-time prices, yet because they often touch sensitive areas such as politics, sports, and insider information, they have long existed in a regulatory gray zone.
But once the 2026 World Cup kicked off, the sector suddenly found itself in a position that was much easier for the public to understand.
The reason is simple: the World Cup is arguably the world’s most natural and expansive canvas for a prediction market. Who will make it out of the group stage? Who will win the title? Can a certain team reach the quarterfinals? Has the market already priced the probability of a marquee match before kickoff? These are the questions fans talk about every day. In the past, however, those discussions mostly stayed on forums and in sports media.
On prediction markets such as Polymarket, these questions are further turned into tradable probabilities and price curves that move with the match. This is also what makes the integration of prediction markets into Web3 wallets such as imToken so interesting: prediction markets are no longer just trading products. They may become a first gateway for everyday users to participate in real-world events through a wallet.
1. Prediction markets come under the regulatory spotlight
On the surface, it is easy to view prediction markets as a “Web3 version of online betting.” But from a regulator’s perspective, what lies beneath is a battle over how these products should be defined.
Prediction markets are not limited to BTC and ETH prices. More broadly, they trade the outcomes of real-world events — an economic data release, an election, a policy decision, or even more sensitive geopolitical developments.
That is why regulation of prediction markets has never been purely a financial issue. After all, if the market around a certain event becomes large enough, then in theory, related parties — especially those with access to non-public information — may have an incentive to influence the outcome itself, or to trade early using that information advantage.
This is the key context behind the CFTC’s recent effort to redraw the boundaries around prediction markets.
Over the past two years, prediction-market platforms such as Polymarket have repeatedly come into the spotlight through the U.S. election, macro data releases, and geopolitical events. As a result, the CFTC has effectively accelerated its focus on prediction markets and event contracts as a key regulatory issue.
Recently, CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig said the agency is in discussions with all major U.S. professional sports leagues, aiming to strengthen the regulatory framework for sports-related prediction markets and guard against insider trading and market manipulation. This direction is especially important for sports markets, because sporting events are naturally well suited to prediction, but also naturally sensitive.
Recent moves in this area share one common feature: they recognize the informational value of prediction markets while moving faster to ring-fence the scenarios most prone to problems.
For example, Kalshi has publicly said it will prohibit political candidates from trading in markets tied to their own campaigns. It will also block athletes, coaches, referees, and other relevant participants in professional and college sports from trading in markets tied to their own events. Polymarket also updated its market integrity rules in March, explicitly prohibiting trading based on stolen information, illegally obtained information, and other improper information sources, while strengthening restrictions on market manipulation and information misuse.
MLB’s information-sharing arrangement with the CFTC also shows that both sports leagues and regulators have realized that once prediction markets enter mainstream sports, competition integrity must be addressed in advance.
In other words, prediction markets are moving from wild growth into a stage that looks more like financial infrastructure. For Polymarket, Kalshi, and the platforms that come next, this is both a constraint and an opportunity.
2. Why the World Cup could be a breakout moment for prediction markets
Regulatory turning points alone are not enough for prediction markets to break into the mainstream. They also need a public event big enough to carry them.
The World Cup fits that role.
Many of crypto’s breakout moments have happened when high-barrier technologies met low-barrier use cases. NFTs broke out for a time because they connected on-chain assets with avatars, art, and community identity. Meme coins spread quickly because they compressed complex financial behavior into simple emotions and cultural symbols.
If prediction markets want to reach a broader user base, the best entry point is not macroeconomic data or complex political contracts. It is sports, entertainment, and major events — scenarios people already want to talk about.
The World Cup is special because it naturally has three conditions.
First, it has a global shared understanding. Even people who are not hardcore football fans can understand questions like who wins, who advances, and who takes the title.
Second, it has a constant flow of information. Pre-match lineups, player condition, injuries and suspensions, tactical changes, and the match itself all keep reshaping market expectations.
Third, it is highly social. Watching football is not an isolated activity. It happens in group chats, reposts, discussions, debates, and shared emotional moments.
This is similar to traditional sports betting in some ways, but the differences are also clear.
Traditional odds are mostly shaped by bookmakers and betting lines, and users see a price processed by the platform. Prediction markets place more emphasis on user-to-user trading, market-driven price formation, and transparent settlement. In a crypto-native environment in particular, capital flows, trading records, and settlement processes are easier to verify, giving prediction markets greater openness and transparency.
Of course, this does not mean prediction markets are necessarily more “advanced” than traditional sports betting. At their core, prediction markets are still a form of risk-taking and speculative trading. But they do offer a new way to participate in events.
One particularly important signal comes from the latest disclosed data. In April 2026, total prediction-market trading volume continued to climb, reaching about $29.8 billion, up 12.4% month over month. Yet within this expanding market, Polymarket’s April volume fell 8.9% from March. Meanwhile, Kalshi — a competitor focused on compliance and scaling rapidly through a federal regulatory framework and sports contracts — grew 13% against the trend, reaching about $14.8 billion.
This data sends a clear signal: the underlying base of the prediction-market sector is changing.
In the past, Polymarket attracted large amounts of crypto-native capital through global political contests, crypto-specific events, and macro narratives. Now, Kalshi and its peers are rapidly expanding through compliant user channels and sports contracts.
This also means that whoever captures the “sports” opportunity — a shared global market — will have an advantage in the next phase of the user-growth race.
3. From assets to events: the wallet’s quiet evolution
This is also what makes imToken’s World Cup prediction campaign worth watching.
Users can now access Polymarket through imToken and participate in World Cup-related prediction markets. If their prediction is correct, they can earn returns under Polymarket’s rules. If their prediction is wrong, they may still receive trial funds subsidized by imToken — the first 200 users can receive a 5 USDC trading subsidy. They can also share their prediction records and World Cup views on X.
On the surface, this is simply a World Cup campaign. But in the broader industry context, it points to an expansion of the wallet’s role.
In the past, the core functions of a wallet were asset custody and on-chain interaction. Users used wallets to send and receive tokens, connect to DApps, approve transactions, sign, swap assets, and participate in DeFi or NFT trading. In short, the wallet was the entry point to the crypto world, but that entry point mostly centered on assets.
The emergence of prediction markets gives wallets the opportunity to become an entry point for event participation.
The logic is straightforward. A user may care about the World Cup without first caring about crypto. A user may want to make a call on a match without first understanding on-chain trading.
But when the World Cup, Polymarket, USDC, wallet access, and social sharing are combined, the crypto user journey is rewritten. Instead of learning how to use a wallet first and then entering the complex on-chain world, users can start with a real-world event they already care about and complete a lightweight on-chain action around it.
This matters for mainstream users.
In the past, the barrier to many crypto products was that users first had to understand concepts such as blockchains, gas, wallets, approvals, DEXs, and cross-chain transfers before they could understand why they might need the product. Prediction markets reverse that process. They begin with a clear question: do you think this outcome will happen? Are you willing to express your view with a small amount of funds?
When the question is intuitive enough, the cost of product education goes down.
This may be the World Cup’s greatest significance for prediction markets. It does not simply bring a wave of trading volume. It gives crypto a rare mainstream narrative — and that may be more important than trading volume alone.
The World Cup gives prediction markets a reason to enter the mainstream conversation, and wallets may become the entry point that turns that reason into action.
Closing thoughts
Of course, prediction markets will not become mainstream overnight because of one CFTC proposal, nor because of one World Cup campaign.
They still face many challenges. Regulatory boundaries are still taking shape. Market manipulation and insider information need to be addressed. User privacy and on-chain security need to be taken seriously. Ordinary users also need to understand that prediction markets are not games with guaranteed profits.
But the direction is becoming clearer.
So, will prediction markets become a new gateway for crypto to break into the mainstream during the World Cup? The answer may not be a simple “yes” or “no.”
A more accurate way to put it is this: the World Cup is pushing prediction markets from a tool for niche speculators toward a broader way for people to participate in public events. And when more users participate in real-world events through a wallet for the first time, crypto’s entry point may no longer be limited to market prices and assets.
It may become every public event happening in real time.
Let’s see what happens next.